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ylowe
USA
217 Posts |
 Posted - 21 Aug 2007 : 13:37:35
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MOMODOU,
Is there any way you can provide us with the prices of commodities in the Gambia maybe quarterly or something. i remember seeing it posted here.
KONDORONG,
we cannot just look at the price of cements to determine if prices are coming down. i believe the central bank is tightening monetary policies to control inflation and one problem with that is how long does it takes to affect prices. Remittances send to the Gambia in the past might also be one of the reason for a stronger dalasi. i just read that the western union recently donated half a million dalasis to some gambian and who knows what is going on there.The value of the dalasis depends on the availability of foreign exchange in the Gambia and most commodities in the Gambia are imported.
i also believe that sometime in the past the dalasi was overvalued and the problem with that is that it makes export expensive in the eyes of foreigner and therefore detards economic growth. The people at the top gets to enjoy cheaper commodities and the rest suffers because we are not growing. In other words i want a stronger dalasi but not a very strong dalasi at this point of economic development.
NJUCKS,
Your assessment will be highly appreciated
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kondorong
Gambia
4380 Posts |
Posted - 21 Aug 2007 : 18:16:15
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quote:
Originally posted by ylowe
KONDORONG,
we cannot just look at the price of cements to determine if prices are coming down.
Well the cost of cemenet is part of a "basket of goods" that society dearly needs. If it is not dropping and even other commodities are not dropping, then its safe to say that there is price gauging in the economy.
Most of our goods are imported and price is therefore directly proportional or somewhere in that neighborhod, to the rate of exchange. So if the exchange rate is favourable,(appreciating dalasi), then we need fewer dalasis to get one unit of a foreign currency. Prices obviuosly should fall. If they continue to rise even with a favourable rate of exchange, then economic crimes may be committed by some busineses.
Lets lok at one cob of corn which is grown locally. I bought one the other day for D10.00 each. What we are seeing is greed and not any economic variables determining price. Super normal profits is ruining our economy.
Foreign exchange rate has dropped meaning that the supply is sufficient to cover imports otherwise, a simple demand and supply law tells me that an excess demand for foreign currency would cause competition, an hence an unfavourable exchange regime.
My take on this sudden drop is that of currency speculation. Force price down for sometime, buy a lot of the excess foreign currency and wait for a scarcity in town, rates go up and then sell at a super normal profit.
The free fall of the foreign currencies in the Gambia, is certainly not commensurate with what is obatining at the Stock Exchange both in Europe and the U.S. I am not aware of a Gambian Stock Exchange.
The drop in the value of the Euro and the Dollar is due to increased foreclosures in the housing market, and mortgage financiers decided to transfer their funds to other sectors creating a shortage of cash for the housng sector. The effcet became a huge drop in housing stocks and loss of confidence. But the drops are far less than the rate of appreciation of the dalasi against these currencies.
Guess what, the dalasi is right now over valued. International forex corporations are curently valuing the dalasi lower than what we have now on the ground. The problem is, our exports will be more expensive and tourism which we depend on, makes us an expensive destination, and only the smiling coast to offer, which unfortunately we are not smiling enough these days, we stand to loose with an appreciating dalasi.
This is why the Chinese devalue their currency to break into the U.S. market.
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“When I despair, I remember that all through history the way of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they can seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall. Think of it--always.” |
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njucks
Gambia
1131 Posts |
Posted - 21 Aug 2007 : 21:00:50
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quote:
Originally posted by ylowe
KONDORONG,
we cannot just look at the price of cements to determine if prices are coming down.
i agree. the whole thing is very complicated. we are focusing too much on 'prices' and i agree it can be misleading.
from the supply side as Kondorong has tried to explain with the D10.00 corn, we would think that prices are set by how much it cost to produce/import them. Kodonrong is right, corn is grown locally and maybe should not cost D10.00 for a cob.
so why is it costing D10.00. for the simply reason that the person sellng corn has to sell it at a price that earns her/him enough to buy other basic commodities that are not grown locally (imported) like oil, rice, taxi fare (runs on petrol). so the pressure on prices is coming form the demand side.
secondly, even if the exhange rate is favourable if there is not enough of a certain commodity, (like cement) too many people want it at the same time, prices can remain high. if you have only one corn and kondorong is willing to only pay D10.00 for it but I want it so bad that i am willing to pay D15.00 , who would you sell to?
this is just how i see it, its not an anomaly but just demand side pressures from too much consumption.
there is also the slight risk that if prices go down a lot it can lead to increased consumption (temporary) especially on non perishable goods like cement, rice, etc, bringing us back to the same problem.
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Edited by - njucks on 21 Aug 2007 21:05:58 |
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MADIBA
United Kingdom
1275 Posts |
Posted - 21 Aug 2007 : 21:08:09
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Konds thanks for the analysis which is devoid of any virulence.
The layman economics is that when one needs lesser dalasis to get a pound/euro/dollar/cfa , with which one imports goods into the country, prices of these goods are expected to fall. The sad reality is that, in the case of Gambian businessmen that doesn't happen. Gambians should be good Muslims, Christians or whatever they call themselves. Let them stop the blood-sucking. I remember some yrs ago whilst still a civil servant, i wanted to buy some 'famous' Kanilai farms produce(mainly veggies) very cheap compared to the main market. I was able to get only some and the rest was bought by the BANA-BANAS(retailers). The next day these produce flooded the local markets at more than double the price Kanilai farms were selling. These profiteerers shamelessly would swear to whatever deity they are rightly or wrongfully serving that the veggies were imported from Senegal hence the high price.
Gambians should take a re-look at ourselves. Our main problem is attitudinal. Easy money; sow, harvest and eat same day. Laziness is another malaise that betides our youth. The cream of the soceity has to be hardworking and honest. There is dignity in labour. I recall the advice of a former boss, who unlike most of his peers lead a down to earth life. He was contented wit his salary and raised his family to be God-fearing and hardworking. He told me that if you are contented you will sleep un-pertubed everyday, walk the streets in broad day light without sneaking and retire in peace. There opportunities abound for the youths. But they want to come to Europe were the streets are paved in riches. They ahve a belief that Europe or America is Utopia, an earthly paradise where you don't have to work for anything. Many are taken aback when they finally make it over, wen the naked reality stares them right in the face.
The Gambia is ours lets work hard to develop it for posterity. Not all Gambians should stay home but also not all Gambians should leave The Gambia. |
madiss |
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kondorong
Gambia
4380 Posts |
Posted - 21 Aug 2007 : 21:13:11
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Njuks
There is plenty of corn to go around the table yet the price is still way too high. In the case of cement, its still in the stores and yet the prices are going higher. Its not demand which is causing the hikes. Its greed. You will find rotten mangoes all over town, yet the price is inelastic.
The problem is everyone is a self appointed economist and prices are set not based on demand but on how much super normal profit one wants. I am not sure if you have heard of this term in gambian commerce : WAHALEH
Thats what is ruining us. Push as high as you can and then come down. So demand has nothing to do with the price increases. Its WAHALEH |
“When I despair, I remember that all through history the way of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they can seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall. Think of it--always.” |
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njucks
Gambia
1131 Posts |
Posted - 21 Aug 2007 : 21:40:29
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quote:
Originally posted by kondorong
There is plenty of corn to go around the table yet the price is still way too high.
ok you may be right and as i admitted it complicated. the point i was trying to put across is that prices of one commoditiy affects everything else. if you sell corn you have to cook the next day will oil, rice , firewood etc. if you sell your corn at a loss and can't afford other things its your choice.
Greed is why oil prices are at $71!!. its universal . the pressure here are demand driven. i believe people sell corn not becuase they dont want them to rot, they sell them to get dalasis to buy something else they need.
you may be right. the quickest solution to control greed is just to set/fix prices. |
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toubab1020
12312 Posts |
Posted - 22 Aug 2007 : 00:41:36
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| Price fixing dosn't work that is why it was abandoned in Gambia long ago,greed is probably the answer and yes the Dalasi is overvalued,if tourists are to come in great numbers they want value for money on their holidays to Gambia, and if tour operators are going to sell lots of holidays to Gambia they also need to take their profit.Gambia is still a great place dispite all its problems |
"Simple is good" & I strongly dislike politics. You cannot defend the indefensible.
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ylowe
USA
217 Posts |
Posted - 22 Aug 2007 : 07:51:44
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quote:
Originally posted by njucks
ok you may be right and as i admitted it complicated. the point i was trying to put across is that prices of one commoditiy affects everything else. if you sell corn you have to cook the next day will oil, rice , firewood etc. if you sell your corn at a loss and can't afford other things its your choice.
If i was producing corn i will probably do the same thing to feed my family. You are right Njucks the price of one comodity affects everything else.
you may be right. the quickest solution to control greed is just to set/fix prices.
I beg to differ my brother cause price control to set prices is a quick fix and not a solution in the long run. It causes shortages and creates black markets and i think this was the reason why it is was stopped in the Gambia years ago. Kondorong, regarding the cement market i think there is a monopoly or price gauging like you stated. I always advocated for anti monopolistic laws that are going to be enforced. i am not sure if there is any. i would like to see competition promoted so as to get rid of greed. i am not saying greed is a bad thing cause i live in a capitalist society and believes in Adam Smith theory that in the process of satisfying my own self interest i ended up benefitting society more effectually that i really intends to. To get rid of the kind of greed we have in Gambia we should promote competition and it will also take care of the "WAHALEH"
Madiba,
You are also right that most of our problems have something to do with our attitudes. When the prices of imported commodities goes up we expect to see a shift from foreign products to local production and this is not the case in the Gambia. Gambians still struggles to buy foreign. Anything foreign is better than local. |
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toubab1020
12312 Posts |
Posted - 22 Aug 2007 : 13:16:23
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YLOWE,
I am sure you didn't mean to write,"I am not saying greed is a bad thing" it must have been a typo,or are you really serious? |
"Simple is good" & I strongly dislike politics. You cannot defend the indefensible.
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ylowe
USA
217 Posts |
Posted - 22 Aug 2007 : 19:56:01
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quote:
Originally posted by toubab1020
YLOWE,
I am sure you didn't mean to write,"I am not saying greed is a bad thing" it must have been a typo,or are you really serious?
Toubab,
I am a capitalist. |
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njucks
Gambia
1131 Posts |
Posted - 22 Aug 2007 : 20:09:45
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quote:
Originally posted by toubab1020
Price fixing dosn't work that is why it was abandoned in Gambia long ago,..............Gambia is still a great place dispite all its problems
thats exactly my point. price fixing is tempting because its easy.
i think its also very difficult to measure 'greed'. if we agree with what madiba is saying, and i do, attitude is also part of the problem.we easily fall in love any imported crap!
anyway lets just give the system some time, it will adjust by itself.
may be high prices will encourage gambians to try to increase local production. |
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kondorong
Gambia
4380 Posts |
Posted - 22 Aug 2007 : 20:13:13
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| Did i hear anyone saying "we eat what we grow?" |
“When I despair, I remember that all through history the way of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they can seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall. Think of it--always.” |
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Karamba
United Kingdom
3820 Posts |
Posted - 22 Aug 2007 : 23:08:24
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Desire/demand for IMPORTED products and services is not a peculiar Gambian attribute. All around the world, locals have desire for whatever is imported. It is some times a measure of prestige. At some point in time, up to 300% tax was levied on imported goods in India. Go with a camera from UK, someone in India would pay anything for it. In England (until today), demand for imported goods is much on the higher side. Imported cars command more prestige than locally made cars; you can tell this on highways and in local neighbourhoods. That is part of the wider benefits international rotation of goods and services offers. The big worry is not about people's desire for imported goods and services (something almost unavoidable.) What we need looking at is the productive exchange value of Gambian skills, goods, and services. That is how we can boast of our Gambian Dalasi gaining strength. There are many ways we can boost the power of our Gambian Dalasi but not just playing with facts and figures. |
Karamba |
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toubab1020
12312 Posts |
Posted - 23 Aug 2007 : 00:05:26
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quote:
Originally posted by ylowe
quote:
Originally posted by toubab1020
YLOWE,
I am sure you didn't mean to write,"I am not saying greed is a bad thing" it must have been a typo,or are you really serious?
Toubab,
I am a capitalist.
Yes so am I  but I don't think that ALL capalists are greedy . |
"Simple is good" & I strongly dislike politics. You cannot defend the indefensible.
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MADIBA
United Kingdom
1275 Posts |
Posted - 23 Aug 2007 : 00:06:11
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Karamba that category may only apply to luxurious goods/services. Goods/services of the basic necessity type, are preferred to imported ones as it reflects ones pride in ones nation, patriotism is if you like. In most British supermarkets, british goods are made distinctive e.g. Britsh Beef, Britsh eggs, British potatoes etc. These are basic comodities and to the conservative brit there are none better out there than his indigenious british produce. They maybe not be the best , but as genuine brits they have to support what's theirs whenever possible.
We Gambians must get our trademark or identity. Whilst in active duty in The Gambia, on most of my travels in Africa, i see clothes locally made in Ghana, Tanzania, Kenya, Togo etc, etc which are gaining international recognistion as a national product. In Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast they have been sewing the local cloths into any attire which they wore with pride. In Burkina there was this jargon in the 80s till the last time i was there in the 90s, PRODUISON BURKINABE, CONSUMMON BURKINABE, meaning lets produce Burkinabe and live/eat Burkinabe produce.
The quest for consuming imported produce which maybe less nutritive to the local products , i think is lack of self-confidence on the part of a people. The gov't should have programmes to sensitize the people on the advanatges of producing for the local market and consuming wat we produce. Lets only turn to imported goods wen they are not locally available. Then most of the hard earned forex used to import food and other basic commodities would go elsewhere.
Attitudes to work and lifstyles has to change if the Gambia is to bettered. The informal is still largely dominated by non-gambians. From fishing to tailors. How on earth would live not be difficult on a poor west african state with little or no mineral resources? What we have aplently is the potential quality human resource base. In many countries today the manufacturing industries form the backbone of their econmies. Now if The Gambia was to move into light manufacturing where are the technicians, engineers who on competence could compete favourably with the very best in the world? Only a few wanted to go to St. peters technical high in Lamin, Bakoteh high, GTTI,ATC Farrafenni? Albeit what a local capenter makes a day even a some graduates may not make in a month. Why shun these trades? The Europe or BABYLON, they want to come has its tradesmen. The TOUBAB or tourist they BUMBS in The Gambia maybe a fitter, painter,gardner, or even a school tecaher on holiday after putting in hard hours to merit a two weeks holidays.
So brothers and sisters lets wake up and do something before its too late. The world is not waiting. |
madiss |
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