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Dalton1
3485 Posts |
 Posted - 27 Mar 2008 : 01:47:46
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By YJ
Heck! Some Math & likely tendencies
The issue of super delegates is likely to mare the democratic candidacy this year. The magic number is 2025/4 so a candidate needs that to be the presidential nominee. Something funny is happening now. A Leapfrog is expected which is likely to put the democratic nominee in shambles in their bigger plan to unseat a republican candidate. The super delegates are about 795 individuals. So far 452 (243 + 209) already openly showed support but they can change any time. The remaining 343 are hanging loose. By the time that the primaries and caucuses are over, Senator Obama might need about half of the remaining super delegates to reach to the magic number while Senator Clinton might need all of that number of remaining super delegates to reach to the magic number.
The latest from CNN analysts estimates the following:
Senator Obama
1, 622 = 1413+209; Tdo = po+so
=Majority votes, Mvo
=Majority states, Mso
Senator Clinton; Tdc = pc+sc
1485 = 1242 + 243
=Minority votes, mvc
=Minority states,msc
Td = p+s,
Where Td is Total delegates
p is pledged delegates
s is super delegates
o – symbolic to Senator Obama
c- symbolic to Senator Clinton
Tdo>Tdc
Mvo>mvc
Mso>msc
Tdo + so = 2024
Tdc + sc = 2024
so and sc are variables moving up or down depending on the weighing of these super delegates.
As at now, Obama leads in the pledged delegates, which constitutes the results of the primaries and caucuses. He is also leading in the popular votes. He won twice as many states as Senator Clinton. Senator Clinton won the bigger states like California, Ohio, Massachusetts, New York and et cetera.
CNN predictions:
CNN analysts predicted that with the remaining states, Senator Clinton might capture some more delegates, in fact is likely to win Pennsylvania, but she cannot override Senator Obama in both the popular vote or the pledged delegates. The whole contest now comes to the super delegates. They are going to decide who their nominee will be. This is made obvious by the fact that Florida and Michigan will not be seated. At least, a deal is not reached yet. This was another chance to leapfrog Senator Clinton to the top. In the spirit of reconciliation, they can be shared in half to the candidates. The problem with honoring the previous contest, there wasn’t a ballot for Senator Obama, remembering that there were many in the contest which would have shared the delegates among all of them. By far, those two areas favored Senator Clinton but as at now they don’t count. They are also being punished for breaking the rules. Like the old adage goes, ‘had I known shall never be known.’ Either way, it is a contest. Each of them has a right to contest to the end, in as much as the other doesn’t reach the magic number.
Weighing of the Super delegates
What if:
(I) The super delegates decide that a victory in any state for a candidate is an automatic ‘take all’ of super delegates for that particular candidate. Then it is obvious that Obama will get the nomination.
(II) The super delegates go by the first in pledged (contested) delegates, and then it is obvious that Senator Obama will get the nomination.
(III) The super delegates go by the popular votes (contested human count), it is another obvious nomination for Senator Obama.
(IV) The super delegates go freely to Denver, Colorado for the democratic convention where they are faced with two hot candidates, in which the criteria will not be based on their victories in pledged or popular vote. This could either leapfrog Senator Clinton or give victory back to Senator Obama. That uncertainty cannot be predicted by anyone.
(V) The super delegates give a weight to a woman to mark the first woman to contest in the presidential elections in America. That is a big catch.
(VI) The Super delegates give a weight to a Blackman to mark the first of its kind to reach to that height in American elections. That’s another big catch.
(VII) The super delegates go by ‘experience’ then Senator Clinton who served as a first lady for eight years and a long time Senator is likely to take it.
(VIII) The super delegates go by ‘judgment’ then Senator Obama is getting the credit of his opposition to the war in Iraq.
(IX) The super delegates go by ‘race’ majority then Senator Clinton got it.
(X) The super delegates weigh in the messages delivered – ‘Change for Obama’ Vs ‘Experience for Clinton.’ That creates a split. Those that believe in change will vote for Senator Obama. Those that believe in experience will vote for Senator Clinton.
(XI) Senator Clinton realizes that she trails in the ‘counting’ and withdraws her candidature for the bigger picture ahead.
(XII) Senator Obama realizes Senator Clinton is excessive in getting the nomination, withdraws his candidature and safeguards the Democratic Party’s chance of winning the presidency.
(XIII) The sun or the moon is ordered to shine on one of them.
Other factors are likely to weigh in, like the Clinton sex scandal, Jeremiah Wright’s alleged racial comments, Geraldine’s alleged racial comments, Obama’s ties to Islam, et cetera. The message that each of these candidates has is likely to attract the super delegates.
In conclusion, we are looking at two potential winning candidates, either way, historic in American politics. Once a nominee emerges, the other is likely to endorse and ask his or her supporters to rally behind, then all the media sickness will be buried for eternity. On a personal note, I wish each of them well. By far, one of them will make a better president than the war-mongers.
Disclaimer: The above is solely my thought-provoking opinion. If you a supporter of one of these candidates, I suggest you read it just as an opinion.
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"There is no god but Allah (SWT); and Muhammad (SAW)is His last messenger." shahadah. Fear & Worship Allah (SWT) Alone! (:
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Edited by - Dalton1 on 27 Mar 2008 01:51:49 |
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kayjatta
2978 Posts |
Posted - 27 Mar 2008 : 08:25:55
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Good analysis, thanks Dalton.
The super-delegates are not likely to over-turn the popular vote. If they do, it will not tell well on their own election prospects coming up shortly (many of then are elected party officials).
I like both Clinton and Obama. I also like Clinton because her election will allow my star, Bill back in the White House; and his vast experience and intelligence could be an asset for Hillary to turn our economy around and amicably end the war in Iraq...
Any possibility of the so-called "dream ticket" ? |
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jambo
3300 Posts |
Posted - 27 Mar 2008 : 10:49:30
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all this could change if another "Oops incident happens" on either camp. Obama and his pastor oops his wife statement oops. Hilary and some of her staff who give their opinions oops.
Me I think Mr Clinton, wants in as much as his wife, I am sure he is doing some serious behind the scenes telephone calls.
I think he will play the "what I can do for the troops" theme.
american politics, they are like a shakespeare play. Not sure which one tho, any suggestions.   |
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kondorong
Gambia
4380 Posts |
Posted - 27 Mar 2008 : 17:50:34
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Kay
The dream team is now dead. Political analyst believe that the dream team was not Hilary/Obama but Hilary/Richardson and with the latter switching to Obama, the dream is now history.
Hilary and Richardson watched Super Bowl together an indication of very close ties between them. The Democratic strategist , Carvel, a close friend of the Clintons could not take the shock and called Richardson " Judas" conciding with Easter weekend when Jesus was "betrayed" by Judas leading to his "crucifixtion".
The sad thing is that the two are at each others throats but like bill said, any politician who is not ready for a beat up should look somwhere meaning that there are many attacks on the way.
The winner in all this is McCain. As this campaign drags on, supporters become attached and infact 28% of Hilary supporters (18% of Obama supporters) vow to vote for McCain if she/he looses the nomination. My prediction is Democrats will loose the election.
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“When I despair, I remember that all through history the way of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they can seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall. Think of it--always.” |
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njucks
Gambia
1131 Posts |
Posted - 27 Mar 2008 : 18:03:12
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quote:
Originally posted by jambo
all this could change if another "Oops incident happens" on either camp. Obama and his pastor oops his wife statement oops. Hilary and some of her staff who give their opinions oops.
Me I think Mr Clinton, wants in as much as his wife, I am sure he is doing some serious behind the scenes telephone calls.
I think he will play the "what I can do for the troops" theme.
american politics, they are like a shakespeare play. Not sure which one tho, any suggestions.
A lot of Romeo and Juliet (Clintons) but some Othello (fictionally Obama's father ). the whole thing might end up as a tragedy since some people feel the 'Presidency' this time is theirs at all costs.
Bush can be wrongly thought of as a modern Caesar. |
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Dalton1
3485 Posts |
Posted - 27 Mar 2008 : 23:31:43
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Bro Kay & Jamba,
Hilary girl is pushing too hard though, think about that one.
Also, someone said to me, Senator Clinton is waiting for Senator Obama to make a mistake or for something to come up, something similar to what Jamba pointed -Pastor wright, muslim ties, et cetera. |
"There is no god but Allah (SWT); and Muhammad (SAW)is His last messenger." shahadah. Fear & Worship Allah (SWT) Alone! (:
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Edited by - Dalton1 on 28 Mar 2008 00:32:54 |
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kayjatta
2978 Posts |
Posted - 28 Mar 2008 : 07:19:49
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Kondorong, thanks for those insightful comments. It is true the prospects of the "dream ticket" are very slim. It was first brought up by the Clinton campaign in Mississippi where they were poised to lose apparently to attract some Obama supporters. Obama later brushed the suggestion aside, arguing that any such ticket must have him (as the front runner) at the top (Obama/Clinton ticket instead of Clinton/Obama ticket as suggested by Bill Clinton).
The current stalemate and its resultant polarization of the Democratic party (much to the benefit of the Republican party) itself makes the idea of the "dream ticket" plausible. In deed whenever two elephants (Obama and Clinton-both minorities) fight, it is only the grass (the Democratic party) that suffers. Therefore, any further protraction of this stalemate is not good for the Democratic party, because it could result in turning off many voters and even alienating some towards Macain and the GOP.But this brings to mind also the fact that "two big crabs cannot fit in the same hole"; therefore any attempt at an O/C or C/O joint ticket may not work well. These two individuals (senators) are stars in their own rights, therefore trying to have one revolve around the other in a so-called "dream ticket" may turn disastrous.
However, the GOP, as symbolized by George Bush and the Iraq war, is very unpopular in the USA presently and I do not see that situation changing in the run up to the November elections. Republicans' chance of extending their rule is very slim, barring any catastrophic division in the among the Democrats.
Dalton, you are right Clinton might be just buying time in case Obama drops the ball, or does something stupid or ...But Clinton's argument to the super-delegates is that she is the more electable against Macain in November because of her ability to win big states like OH, TX, PA, FL, etc, that Obama's effectiveness in winning smaller caucus states is not enough to win Macain and the GOP. This argument is flawed, but it is an argument she will no doubt make...
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Edited by - kayjatta on 28 Mar 2008 07:25:22 |
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jambo
3300 Posts |
Posted - 28 Mar 2008 : 10:20:12
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I am just loving american politics, , but this could give mcCain a big hand. voters will look at the democratics and think they are just in it for themselves. |
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